Romit Shah, an analyst with Nomura Instinet, asserted in a video on Bloomberg today that he in convinced that Tesla and SpaceX will merge. His main reasoning is that Tesla and SpaceX have a lot of commonality, especially interest in AI in manufacturing.
I have mixed feelings and thoughts about SpaceX and Tesla merging. I do think that ultimately it may happen, perhaps by 2030, when both companies are mature and there could be growing synergies attained by combining the two companies. Perhaps when SpaceX is able to grow their BFR Earth to Earth plans (transporting people anywhere on earth in less than an hour) then there could be added advantage in bringing Tesla and SpaceX together as the ultimate transportation company for earth and beyond. However, I do think it will take quite some years before SpaceX even has the ability to test their BFR earth to earth flights.
Another reason to merge Tesla and SpaceX is simply because this would allow Elon Musk to focus his energy all under one company and would allow him to potentially launch even bigger ventures and new investments under the umbrella company. Currently, Elon has launched separate companies for the Boring Company and Neuralink, but over time I think the increased overhead incurred by having separate companies could be taxing for Elon in terms of his time and commitment. If Tesla (and SpaceX) can be profitable enough on a sustained consistent basis, that could provide Elon with enough capital to try new ideas and ventures within his umbrella holding company and reduce fragmentation of having to maintain various separate companies. One small example is if SpaceX goes public, Elon would then have to be available for two sets of quarterly conference calls and shareholder meetings, etc. There are many more examples of how having two separate public companies could be more of a headache for Elon. Currently, with SpaceX being private he’s able to shield SpaceX from much of the scrutiny and volatility of the public markets. However, I’m not sure how long SpaceX can remain and will remain private. Elon has stated his desire to keep SpaceX private, but also I’ve heard from SpaceX’s President her desire to take the company public.
Tesla will just be entering their groove later this year as they ramp Model 3 production, and they’ve guided for sustained quarterly profit to start by the end of this year. For SpaceX, they’ve been a tight run operation with revenue largely covering launch expenses. But they have large capital needs for their BFR rocket and their internet satellite constellation. SpaceX won’t have sustained quarterly profits until they can get their internet satellite constellation up and running, and if they can do so they have potential to be lucratively profitable, or should I say ludicrously profitable. As long as both Tesla and SpaceX are very profitable, I would imagine a merger would make more sense for both companies as each company would be past the riskiest phases in their businesses.
Even if Tesla and SpaceX do merge, I imagine the new company would be an umbrella holding company of sorts. Tesla and SpaceX would run relatively independent of each other with separate structures for most everything. However, public reporting would be simplified as one company and it would make things more manageable for Elon (vs running two public companies). The other advantage would be the possibility of raising large amounts of capital based on the market cap of the new holding company to go into large arenas of business that could create massive shareholder value.
In conclusion, I think it’s too earlier to be talking about a Tesla and SpaceX merger as it won’t make sense until much later when both companies are running sustainable quarterly profits.