Model 3 – Page 2 – TeslaWeekly

I think it’s difficult to compare Tesla’s market cap to typical auto makers because typical auto makers have very low margin, have limited growth prospects, and have limited potential to expand into direct sales and service due to their existing franchisee dealer model.

Further, the auto market is ripe for disruption, and ripe for a tech-orientated company to enter and create a revolutionary product, similar to how the iPhone was revolutionary in the phone market.

Just like there are 100s of types of cars on the market now, it reminds me of the 100s of types of phones in the market before the iPhone. It shows to me the lack of a compelling product. A truly compelling product will take majority market share, just like the iPhone did. In that sense, the auto market is similar to the phone market before Apple entered. It’s ripe and it’s a huge market, arguably larger than the phone market.

So, in this sense, Tesla has the potential to truly be a market disruptor and emerge as the Apple of cars, with exceedingly high gross margins, market share and customer loyalty. But Tesla needs to earn this and execute their way to this potential.

Due to this potential, I think Tesla will always have a higher multiple that investors give for its stock compared to other auto markers, especially as other auto markers get increasingly disrupted. In other words, it’s likely the P/E ratio of legacy auto makers shrink as Tesla’s increases.

In my view, I think the smartest and largest long-term investors are typically looking at TSLA with one lens that is about 2-3 years out and another lens that is 10 years out. The 2-3 year lens sees Tesla reaching certain production goals in 2020-2021 and that revenue, margin, growth, etc all factor into their analysis of how much the company is worth. But also, they view Tesla with a 10-year lens and see the potential it has to be a massive disruptor in a trillion+ market, and they do attribute value to that as well. What % value an investor gives to the 2-3 years lens vs the 10 year lens varies according to investor.

Should you buy a Tesla Model 3 or a Model S?

If you’re in the market for a Tesla sedan, then you might be wondering if you should buy a Model 3 or a Model S.  Nowadays, a used Model S (ie., 4-5 years old) can be as inexpensive or even more inexpensive as a Model 3.  However, with a used Model S, the car might be out of warranty and you might not have the latest features like Autopilot.

In my opinion, the Tesla Model 3 is the preferred car unless you really need or want the Model S.  The Model S has more cargo room so is much better for road trips, especially if you have a family.  Even though the Model 3 has more cargo room compared to its competitors, the Model S is in a class by itself in terms of cargo room.  The rear hatchback design and fold-down seats (the Model 3 also has fold-down seats) allow one to pack a ton in the back.  With my 2013 P85 I was able to haul home a 70″ TV in the box… that’s right, the whole box fit into the car which is quite amazing.

The Model S also is a more smooth and comfortable ride on the freeway.  So if you’re doing a lot of freeway driving, especially if you have a very long commute, then the Model S might be the preferred choice.  In my own tests, I found my 2013 Model S P85 to be about 2dB quieter than the Model 3 as well.

The Model S is also more prestigious and eye-catching.  It’s a larger car but also the design intent of the car is more flashy than the humbler, less conspicuous Model 3.  So, if you’re looking for a prestigious car, then the Model S is the way to go.

However, if you’re not taking road trips with your family and don’t have long freeway commutes, then I was generally suggest the Model 3 is the way to go.   The Model 3 is a dream to drive with superb handling and performance.  It’s got everything a Tesla needs to have, including a 15″ center screen with navigation and media.  Autopilot is fantastic and is only getting better with software updates.  And the Model 3 is a more efficient car, meaning with less energy you’ll be able to go farther.

The amazing thing about the Model 3 is that it does not feel cheap compared to its much more expensive bigger brother, the Model S.  The Model 3 feels like driving the future, and it’s by far the best car in its class.