I think it’s difficult to compare Tesla’s market cap to typical auto makers because typical auto makers have very low margin, have limited growth prospects, and have limited potential to expand into direct sales and service due to their existing franchisee dealer model.

Further, the auto market is ripe for disruption, and ripe for a tech-orientated company to enter and create a revolutionary product, similar to how the iPhone was revolutionary in the phone market.

Just like there are 100s of types of cars on the market now, it reminds me of the 100s of types of phones in the market before the iPhone. It shows to me the lack of a compelling product. A truly compelling product will take majority market share, just like the iPhone did. In that sense, the auto market is similar to the phone market before Apple entered. It’s ripe and it’s a huge market, arguably larger than the phone market.

So, in this sense, Tesla has the potential to truly be a market disruptor and emerge as the Apple of cars, with exceedingly high gross margins, market share and customer loyalty. But Tesla needs to earn this and execute their way to this potential.

Due to this potential, I think Tesla will always have a higher multiple that investors give for its stock compared to other auto markers, especially as other auto markers get increasingly disrupted. In other words, it’s likely the P/E ratio of legacy auto makers shrink as Tesla’s increases.

In my view, I think the smartest and largest long-term investors are typically looking at TSLA with one lens that is about 2-3 years out and another lens that is 10 years out. The 2-3 year lens sees Tesla reaching certain production goals in 2020-2021 and that revenue, margin, growth, etc all factor into their analysis of how much the company is worth. But also, they view Tesla with a 10-year lens and see the potential it has to be a massive disruptor in a trillion+ market, and they do attribute value to that as well. What % value an investor gives to the 2-3 years lens vs the 10 year lens varies according to investor.

Should you buy a Tesla Model 3 or a Model S?

If you’re in the market for a Tesla sedan, then you might be wondering if you should buy a Model 3 or a Model S.  Nowadays, a used Model S (ie., 4-5 years old) can be as inexpensive or even more inexpensive as a Model 3.  However, with a used Model S, the car might be out of warranty and you might not have the latest features like Autopilot.

In my opinion, the Tesla Model 3 is the preferred car unless you really need or want the Model S.  The Model S has more cargo room so is much better for road trips, especially if you have a family.  Even though the Model 3 has more cargo room compared to its competitors, the Model S is in a class by itself in terms of cargo room.  The rear hatchback design and fold-down seats (the Model 3 also has fold-down seats) allow one to pack a ton in the back.  With my 2013 P85 I was able to haul home a 70″ TV in the box… that’s right, the whole box fit into the car which is quite amazing.

The Model S also is a more smooth and comfortable ride on the freeway.  So if you’re doing a lot of freeway driving, especially if you have a very long commute, then the Model S might be the preferred choice.  In my own tests, I found my 2013 Model S P85 to be about 2dB quieter than the Model 3 as well.

The Model S is also more prestigious and eye-catching.  It’s a larger car but also the design intent of the car is more flashy than the humbler, less conspicuous Model 3.  So, if you’re looking for a prestigious car, then the Model S is the way to go.

However, if you’re not taking road trips with your family and don’t have long freeway commutes, then I was generally suggest the Model 3 is the way to go.   The Model 3 is a dream to drive with superb handling and performance.  It’s got everything a Tesla needs to have, including a 15″ center screen with navigation and media.  Autopilot is fantastic and is only getting better with software updates.  And the Model 3 is a more efficient car, meaning with less energy you’ll be able to go farther.

The amazing thing about the Model 3 is that it does not feel cheap compared to its much more expensive bigger brother, the Model S.  The Model 3 feels like driving the future, and it’s by far the best car in its class.

There appears to be a narrative amongst Tesla skeptics where the quantity of cars Tesla produces is compared to major auto makers to minimize Tesla’s achievements.  Today I’ll dive into this and show why the narrative is incorrect.

Let’s take Ford as an example.  They recently filed their 2017 annual report.

In the annual report, Ford says, “In 2017, we sold approximately 6,607,000 vehicles at wholesale throughout the world.”

Ford’s 2017 automotive revenue was 145.6B, which means that the average revenue per vehicle was roughly $22,000.

Ford’s gross margin on automotive in 2017 was roughly 10%, and their profit margin (before taxes) was roughly 5%.

So let’s put this into perspective.  For an average priced $22,000 car the Ford sells, their gross margin is $2,200 and their profit margin is $1,100.  On average Ford makes $1,100 per vehicle.

Now, let’s look at Tesla and the Model 3.

Tesla is aiming for 25% gross margin on the Model 3 and mid-teens profit margin (let’s say 14%).  The average price of the Model 3 is projected at around $42,000 (but might even be higher if people go with more options).

In this case, the average gross margin on a Model 3 would be $10,500 and profit margin would be $5880.  Compared to Ford’s average vehicle profit margin of $1100, the Model 3 would be 5x as profitable.

In other words, one Model 3 is worth in terms of profits the equivalent of 5 Ford vehicles.

So, if Tesla can sell 500,000 Model 3 and 500,000 Model Y (their small SUV due in 2020) annually, that would be 1M vehicles at an average of 5x the profitability of Ford’s vehicles.  So the equivalent would be 5M Ford vehicles.

Let’s add in the Model S/X to the mix.  Let’s say Tesla can achieve 30% gross margin, and a profit margin of 18%.  (Note: historically gross margin for the Model S/X has been around 25% with the past 2 quarters lower due to Model 3 ramp.  They can likely reach 30% gross margin with their new model refresh that will easier to manufacture).  Profit margin on each S/X would be $16,200 (if we assumed a average sale price of $90k).  That’s almost 15x as profitable as the average Ford vehicle.

So, 100,000 Model S/X would be the equivalent of 1.5M Ford vehicles in terms of profit.

Combine 1M Model 3/Y and 100k S/X and you have the equivalent of 6.5M vehicles from Ford.

Let that sink in.  If Tesla can achieve what they’re aiming for, then just 1.1M of their vehicles would produce the same profit as 6.5M vehicles from Ford.

And Tesla would just be getting started.