Editor of the DailyKanban, E.W. Niedermeyer, tweeted this morning that he’s received a tip from a supplier source regarding Model Y. The source claims that Tesla is sending out drawings and specs to solicit quotes for the Model 3 cross. Also, the source claims production is targeted for March 1, 2020.
If this rumor is true, then I think it’s a good sign that Model Y development is pushing forward and on track. It’s quite early for Tesla to solicit bids for Model Y parts, but my hunch would be that Tesla is trying to gauge pricing in an initial effort with suppliers.
If a targeted production start date of March 1, 2020 is accurate then I would expect the Model Y reveal to happen is late 2018 or early 2019.
The Model Y will be based on the Model 3 platform. In Tesla’s Q2 2017 earnings call, Elon Musk explained:
Oh, and one thing I wanted to correct. I think in a prior call, we publicly had said that Model Y, or our compact SUV – it’s called Model Y. It may or may not be – would be a totally new architecture. Upon the council of my executive team – thank you. Thanks, guys – who reeled me back from the cliffs of insanity – much appreciated – the Model Y will in fact be using a substantial carryover from Model 3 in order to bring its market faster.
Yes. So that will really accelerate our ability to get to Model Y to market faster, because fundamentally people prefer a sedan, people prefer an SUV. And in fact, the SUV market is larger. It’s the biggest single product (32:35) I believe in the world.
So, I’d like to thank my executive team for stopping me from being a fool, and yes. The Model Y or whatever the hell will have relatively low technical and production risk as a result. I still think we want to do the crazy thing in the future, but we will punt that until after the compact SUV.
The Model Y has potential to address an even larger market than the Model 3 as the SUV market is hugely popular especially in the U.S.
Back in October 2015 Elon Musk hinted that the Model Y would have falcon wing doors
However, since that time many owners have experienced challenges with the reliability of the Model X falcon wing doors. And I suspect (and hope) that Elon has changed his mind. I personally think the Model Y should have regular doors to reduce complexity.
On another note, the person who tweeted the rumor this morning, Edward Niedermeyer, has a long bitter history with Tesla. In his latest battle with Tesla, Niedermeyer posted an article in June 2016 criticizing Tesla and asserting safety defects on the Model S suspension. Tesla posted a strong rebuttal and critique of Niedermeyer the following day.