Crazy. I got my invite to configure this afternoon, and just got a call from Tesla not more than a few hours later for Delivery on January 30th in San Diego. Vin 59xx.
Earlier today another Model 3 reservation holder named SoFlaModel3 shared on M3OC that he was assigned a “VIN close to 6000”. He also said that he configured today and was assigned the VIN within 30 minutes.
Jan 25, 2018 12:22am PST Update: Shortly after posting this, a member of the Tesla Owners Worldwide Facebook group posted a screenshot that showed his Model 3 VIN as #6396. He says he configured on Jan 18 and received his VIN on Jan 24. So Tesla has surpassed VIN #6000! I changed the title of this article from “Model 3 VINs close in on #6000 as ramp continues” to “Model 3 VINs surpass #6000 as ramp continues.
If you’re a Model S/X owner with a Model 3 reservation and you’re waiting for an email to configure, you’re best bet is to log into your Tesla.com account and go to your Model 3 reservation page. Many current owners are finding that they’re Model 3 is ready to configure.
As VINs reach near 6000, it’s an encouraging sign that Tesla is continuing to ramp production of the Model 3. Tracking VINs and deliveries can be tough because often Tesla assigns VINs out of order. For example, another TMC member, hacer, shared that he was assigned a Model 3 VIN today, #44xx.
In Q4 2017, Tesla shared that they had produced 2,425 Model 3s and had delivered 1,550 of them. So, for Tesla to be assigning VINs in the 4000-6000 range is encouraging.
It appears Tesla is aiming to reach a production rate of 1,000 cars per week by the end of January. In a Jan 17 Schaeffers Research article, it notes ” JPM reported on the company’s private investor meeting at the Detroit Auto Show. The brokerage firm said TSLA’s head of investment relations indicated Model 3 production will reach 1,000 cars per week this month — an increase from fourth-quarter numbers, with the recent bottleneck issues resolved.”
In the Q4 2017 delivery release, Tesla shared more about their latest goals for the Model 3 production, “As we continue to focus on quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time, we expect to have a slightly more gradual ramp through Q1, likely ending the quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles. We intend to achieve the 5,000 per week milestone by the end of Q2.”
If we piece this information together, we have a ramp that looks like:
1,000 Model 3 cars per week by end of January.
2,500 Model 3 cars per week by end of March.
5,000 Model 3 cars per week by end of June.
Currently, Tesla is giving Model 3 priority to current Model S/X owners in order of when they reserved. Today, however, Tesla sent a batch of Model 3 configuration invites to owners who didn’t reserve until 2017 or later. TMC member Esme es Mejor shared, “Just got invited to configure. I’m a CA Model S owner, but didn’t reserve until 2017. I must be behind the vast majority of CA owners, so it’s a good sign (if highly inexact) of the ramp making progress.”
It is likely that Tesla will soon run out of owners w/reservations and will soon open up configuration to non-owners who waited in line the first day. My guess is within 2-5 weeks.
Currently only the Model 3 long range version with premium package ($49k price) is available to order. But Tesla is aiming to release the standard range version ($35k price) and also an AWD version soon.
When I log into my MyTesla account, under a Model 3 reservation it shows that the base $35,000 Model is expected in “Early ’18” and the Dual Motor AWD version is due in “Spring ’18”.
I’m not sure which one is earlier: “Early ’18” or “Spring ’18”. But my guess would be that “Early ’18” is earlier, and might mean sometime in March-April. “Spring ’18” would normally mean March-April but Tesla is infamous for being late with timelines so “Spring” in Tesla language is probably sometime in May or June.