Issue 6

October 3rd 2014

The big news this week was Elon's tweet that on October 9th Tesla will reveal "the D and something else". What is the D? And something else? See below for more details.

DaveT, Editor

Model S

October 9th

On October 9, Tesla will reveal "the D". All we know about it is what Elon tweeted on Wednesday, "About time to unveil the D and something else."

My guess is that Tesla will reveal with dual-motor (AWD) Model S. First, an AWD Model S will appeal to people in cold weather areas as well as people who prefer the added traction of an AWD vehicle. Second, since two motors will be used, the car will likely have a higher top-speed which will appeal to customers in Germany who drive on the Autobahn. Third, adding an additional motor will likely increase the car's 0-60 mph time (which means an AWD Model S performance model will likely go 0-60mph in the mid-3 second range which would be incredible). And finally, the AWD Model S should have a better turning radius in parking lots than the rear-wheel drive Model S (this is something Elon has aluded to with the Model X having the turning radius of a Mini Cooper because of the AWD system).

Finally, in his tweet Elon mentioned "something else". I think this is probably referring to the Driver Assist features that have been showing up on some newly built cars already.

Mark your calendars. October 9th is the big reveal.

twitter.com

P85D seen in the wild

More evidence that the "D" is probably going to be a dual-motor option for the Model S.

teslamotorsclub.com

Model D?

Some people are speculating that Tesla could reveal a new car called the Model D on October 9th.

First, I think it would be a good idea for Tesla to release a Coupe (based on the Model S platform) sometime after the Model X and before Model 3, since it would allow them to continue their quarter-over-quarter sales growth into Model 3 production. The Coupe model could also feature a convertible option as well.

However, I think it's too early for Tesla to release a new model car as they are still struggling to ramp production on the Model S and want to execute the Model X with precision.

I also did some trademark research and Tesla doesn't have "Model D" registered as a trademark (they have Model 3 and Model Y registered). So, I think people are jumping the gun hoping for a new car to be announced on October 9th. My best bet is for a dual-motor Model S.

Model X

Model X Reservation Tally (September update)

Paul Carter (teslamotorsclub.com) released his September Model X reservation estimates last night. He estimates 21,344 Global Model X reservations so far (1,391 in September). What's most impressive is that Model S reservations are picking up pace. Just in the U.S., Model X reservations were at 21/day in July, 25/day in August, and 30/day in September.

teslamotorsclub.com

TSLA

Dougherty & Co note

Andrea James (Dougherty & Co) released a note this week as a Q3 preview (Q3 earnings will be held on the first week of November). No media picked up on this note so I don't have a link to share, but I'll share some notable parts of it here.

"Tesla's biggest mistake thus far as a company has been to massively underestimate demand for the Model S, thus requiring a factory reconfiguration in July and August. The final assembly shutdown may cause TSLA to miss its Q3 production targets, but sets a path for gross margin expansion and significant operating leverage in 2015. We are lowering our 2014 estimates, while raising 2015."

"So far, Tesla has only discussed its production run rates, not its actual factory capacity. Tesla has communicated that it would end 2014 at a little more than 1,000 units produced per week and that by the end of 2015, production would be just over 2,000 units per week. Tesla has not disclosed capacity, though we think it is reasonable to assume that capacity may be even twice the production run-rate exit of 2015. In other words, the new final assembly line may be able to produce 4,000 units per week, or 200,000 units per year."

"We have a buy rating and a $325 price target on Tesla Motors shares. We believe that Tesla can reasonably generate about $19 in non-GAAP EPS in 2020, (excluding the impact of leasing accounting but including share dilution.) A 30x multiple on 2020 earnings returns a $570 stock, which becomes $325 after discounting it back six years at a 10% discount rate."

Elon Musk

Video Interview: Auto-pilot in 2015

Here's a great video interview of Elon Musk (under a minute) sharing about Tesla's plans for auto-pilot to be released in 2015. He's confident as early as next year people could use autopilot for 90% of their driving and that Tesla is and will be the leader in this technology.

cnn.com

Video Interview: Elon Musk on recent NASA contract win

Here's a great video interview of Elon sharing his thoughts on the recent NASA contract awarded to SpaceX.

msn.com

Other News

Slovakia in talks with Tesla Motors

Tesla is probably just exploring options for the future, but this is interesting:

"There is a chance that Slovakia may get a fourth carmaker, with the Economy Ministry confirming it has been in talks with US electric car producer Tesla Motors. The carmaker, which is considered to be the most innovative in the world, confirmed in June its long-term plans to build a plant in Europe. Slovakia is a contender, with the carmaker already involved in talks with the Slovak Agency for Development of Investments and Trade (SARIO)."

sme.sk